The School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon is getting two new buildings, the Gates Center for Computer Science and the Hillman Center for Future Generation Technologies. Together, the two are the Gates Hillman Complex or GHC. This market is designed to predict when the buildings will open.

In a broader sense, it’s a test of the power of prediction markets.

Any CMU Andrew ID holder, with the exception of those who can directly control (that is to say, schedule) the opening date.

Yes. For instance, “After August 17th” will pay off on August 17th, while “Not after August 17th” will not.

We’ll use the date listed on the temporary occupancy permit of the complex to be the official opening day. Nobody can move into the buildings until that permit is granted, and that permit isn’t granted until the buildings are ready to receive people.

In the event that different parts of the GHC receive permits at different times, we’ll use the date at which at least 50% of the GHC has been granted an occupancy permit. Note that parking lots are not included in this calculation.

We’ll hold a raffle (generate random numbers) to distribute prizes when the GHC finally opens. Your chance of winning is proportional to the number of tickets you hold.

Prizes include an iPhone gift card, iPod shuffles, coffee club memberships, cupcake coupons from Dozen, gift certificates to the University Bookstore and T-shirts.

Yes. Every week we’ll see if you’ve created and held a new bet in the past week. If so, you’ll be credited with two additional tickets.

This is the probability of your bet being correct as calculated from the current market prices. If this figure is higher than the probability you think your bet is correct, you should sell.

If a bet has an implied probability of 1, that means that its current value is as large as it will ever be.